I wrote a piece below called “What Only Amateurs Can Do” dedicated to the proposition that professionals write what present-day opinion and fashion pay them for.
Simmons then asked me about his Peak Oil Theory and my reply was in this vein, as he predicted. Since 1971 the newspapers have been full of oil and the Middle East. So if you have a theory about the future or the past or hte present, you sell it by tying it to oil and the Middle East. We become even more obsessed with oil and the Middle East.
I would therefore be astounded if the real problem that slammed us in the side of the face came from the direction we’re looking at, i.e., oil and the Middle East.