I have said repeatedly that Futurology has nothing to do with the future. That is a result of Mantra Thinking: Why is information produced? Futurology is entirely based on what TODAY’s editors and foundations want to see happen and what today’s readers want to read about.
The greatest combination of scientific and social knowledge, genius, and good sense in the middle of the eighteenth century was Benjamin Franklin. He invented all the basic terms we use for electricity, battery, positive and negative and others. He was in at the beginning of the force which would transform the new century.
Franklin also said that electricity was a study of a phenomenon which should be known. He added that the one thing he was sure of was that it would never have any practical use. He said that right up until he died in 1790.
Not unusually, Franklin had an eye for the future EXCEPT in the area in which he was expert. This is so common I consider it to be a rule, whose few exceptions prove the rule.
An expert has an exact idea where his field is and where it is going. Sudden changes, like the development of practical chemical batteries and alternating current generation, catch them by surprise right in the middle of their theorizing about how things will progress. Edison died an opponent of AC.
Bill Gates flatly predicted that we would NEVER need more than a megawatt in a home computer. That’s the wrong exact number but I don’t want to try to find the quote again.
You can tell when a science fiction book was written while reading it. You can tell when a Futurology book was written when you read it. You can tell when a history book was written when you read it. That should tell you how much these writers about the future know about the real future.
But remember, unlike most writers, these are people who get published and who get paid. Their information is PRODUCED. They are paid because they are experts on the field as it is NOW, They appeal to readers who read NOW.
We see Experts as totally out of the class of fortunetellers at the fair because the Experts really do know a lot. But when it comes to the future, they are in exactly the same business. The Crystal Ball in the tent tells you what sounds reasonable to you. It tells you what you want to hear. It gives dire warnings about things you already understand.
That is exactly what the Experts do when they turn to the Future.
Only mavericks and heretics have ever been right about what is to come.
#1 by backbaygrouch4 on 04/25/2010 - 7:44 am
While I lived in Spain by far the largest payoff ever in the futbol sports betting card, ‘uno, equis, dos,’ was won by someone who knew nothing about the game. Nothing. A prize that size could not be won by anyone at all familiar with the teams. The card has 3 columns, uno – win; equis [x] – tie, and dos – lose. It is a parimutuel system so prizes normally are not large.
A young honeymooner saw her new husband filling out a few weekly cards and wanted to join in the fun, but knew anything about the game. Yet she scored the biggest pot ever, with only one card. Just about every one of the fourteen games that weekend was an upset, several of them very, very long shots. Usually in such a situation 9 or ten corrects will take the prize. She had all fourteen. The prize was not shared among multiple winners. No one but an idiot would have bet many of them. A Futurologist cannot win a long shot.
So how did she do it? He was lying in bed and she cast dice on his bare chest 14 times. It returned millions. Dwarfed every prize before and since.
#2 by Peter rabbit on 04/25/2010 - 1:53 pm
Craig Bodeker, the filmaker who wrote, directed and produced “A Conversation About Race” will be interviewed on radio at 6:15PM today to discuss immigration
http://rossputin.com/blog/index.php/backbone-radio-april-25th-2010-our-current-third-rail-immigration-and-race
They are encouraging listeners to call. Could be an opportunity to get the mantra on the air…
#3 by Alan B on 04/30/2010 - 3:55 am
The first encounter with a personal computer was near the end of my senior year in high school, I looked at the Apple Computer and just walked away. In that era a computer would conjure the image of a giant machine with flashing lights and a nerd in a white jacket tweaking it constantly. I had seen the future and I was not impressed.
Today I would be lost with out my personal computer. Multiculturalist see a brighter future with a brown skin world. I have seen their future in La, New Orleans and more reciently Arizona. The Anti White PC Multiculturalists give me the creeps unlike that Apple Computer.