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Election Notes

Posted by Bob on November 5th, 2012 under Coaching Session

This should appear the Monday before “the Tuesday after the first Monday of November.” after the first .

That weird wording is the official Election Day. “The Tuesday after the first Monday in November.” I have no idea how they came up with that, but it is one of the random trivia one enjoys.

I cannot remember a presidential election when my guess, when I had one, wasn’t accurate. I especially remember case like the 1988 election when even National Review had given up on Bush and I said Bush would win the whole time.

The reason my accuracy at this is odd is because I took no interest in presidential elections.

When it comes to planning strategy in election campaigns, the more senior an advisor is, the sooner his job is over. By the time John Ashbrook was murdered in April of 1982 I had already done about all my work for his 1982 campaign for the Senate which was still over six months away.Photobucket

Please note I said: “the more senior THE ADVISOR…” Strategic advisers are a separate set from the ranks of people who conduct the campaign. In Hollywood terms, an advisor is more like a script writer. The basic script usually has to be there before the producer can sell the idea and then hire a director.

Most people only think of rank in terms of campaign manager and on down to those conducting the campaign. That’s all most people have heard of.

Which is exactly as it should be. It critical for the people at the head of the active campaign to be known. The advisors, unless they are known as Big Time Campaign Advisors, only need to be known inside a small circle.

I may have been partially responsible for Ashbrook’s murder, because he was scaring Metzenbaum to death in the polling. It was therefore critical that he die before he became the official Republican candidate. And I know damned well that in the circle of people who knew who the advisors were, my strategy was well known to be a major reason for Metzenbaum’s problem.

When the polls showed the real situation, everybody knew my job in the strategy was done. Bumping me off wouldn’t do it.

So this is practical stuff.

So my interest in presidential elections was always minimal. By the campaign’s start my job was long since done.

But I also believe that my accuracy in predicting the election outcome was related to my disinterest in the November election. During the months where the professional commentators were discussing it every day, I was a person who was not obsessed with the day to day stuff.

While National Review was actually declaring their man, Bush senior, would lose, I was not caught up in their despair. The Democrats had once more nominated a Massachusetts liberal, like the Minnesota one they nominated in 2004. He would lose, whatever the latest polls said.

My ignorance of the details of the campaign and of day-to-day polling actually put me more in the voters’ category. The voter doesn’t really follow any of this stuff either.

I have assumed this time that Obama would win. There is a big outcry about Romney coming in fast. But a neck and neck election is what those selling election coverage are going to promote.

There is also the absentee vote. This used to consist of people living outside the US. But this year there is an emphasis on getting out the over 65 age vote. We are allowed to vote early. If I were trying to sell campaign coverage, which is every reporters job, I could make the heavily pro-Romney aged voter phenomenon into something presaging a possible Romney landslide.

So I make one solid prediction. I am either right or wrong. If you are a professional commentator you can cover your naked backside, as NR did in 1988 and at other times, simply by letting your earlier predictions fall into the Memory Hole.

Nobody remembers what a professional commentator predicted, because none of them would be fool enough to make a flat prediction the day before Election Day.

But they have to be avoid being dead wrong. I don’t. My readers have seen me dead wrong many, many times.

A prophet sells certainty. A pro sells probabilities, and my probabilities made me a professional.

I don’t mind being dead wrong among friends.

So I thank Obama will win because the information that has filtered down to me is that the old folks are voting early whereas the usual idea of an early absentee vote did not include them, and because the media has a vested interest in the “too close to call“ stuff..

A campaign advisor who can’t afford to be dead wrong should get out of politics and into some more honest profession, like pornography or drugs.

  1. #1 by Jason on 11/05/2012 - 7:39 am

    I’ll throw my two cents in, which is not even worth 2 cents. I predict Romney barely wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, so Obama wins. Intrade, the gambling site, has it 2 to 1 odds in Obama’s favor (supposedly they have a good record because people bet with their own money). I figure there is a STRONG hold in key states for Dems.

    I do suspect Romney wins the popular vote because politics is getting more racial, so I’m betting more Whites vote for him. But, I may be jumping the gun.

    Of interest to me is the impact this would have on any pro-White movement. I think having Romney lose will signal an end to the old politics of never mentioning White voters (this is a HOPE more than anything, but it is a strong hope). If he loses, it will be obvious to some in the GOP that they have to get more White voters if they ever want a chance at White House again. And some may start getting explicit about it. If they don’t eventually some other party will.

  2. #2 by Simmons on 11/05/2012 - 10:03 am

    It would be foolish to bet against Bob in these matters, but let me make my case for being that fool.

    Obama is the Jim Jones cult leader of this era, no establishment pollster is going to show him losing a close race, and de-moralizing Obama’s idiot supporters in those swing states and be that person who pisses of the enforcers of PC.

    But like that old early 80s event the plane carrying the doofus who will ask if anyone wants to go back home has arrived at the jungle landing strip.

    Secondly those who tell us Romney is going to lose are literally the Eeyores bravely telling us whitey is done for and it is all hopeless and Romney losing and them predicting that as sages of the ages (I know I am them).

    Romney 300 electoral votes

    • #3 by Jason on 11/05/2012 - 10:25 am

      I hope you are right, because if so, that means Whites are voting more as a block than currently predicted (assuming 80% of minorities are voting Obama, which I suspect is true, it will take a fairly large majority of Whites to win).

  3. #4 by shari on 11/05/2012 - 10:55 am

    My unsolicited opinion is that we’ll probably go to bed thinking perhaps Romney won, but get up finding that Obama did. The better to keep up the appearance of a two party system for a while longer. Blacks will be dancing in the streets, looting and dancing, burning things down and dancing. Some anti-whites and anti-mantra whites might feel a cold chill.

  4. #5 by shari on 11/05/2012 - 10:57 am

    My edit doesn’t work either.

  5. #6 by backbaygrouch on 11/05/2012 - 1:11 pm

    ‘Merika needs an new pair o’ shoes, Bob. Roll snake eyes.

  6. #7 by Daniel Genseric on 11/05/2012 - 4:54 pm

    O’bama loses and Hurricane Sandy (1000 mile wide tropical depression?) quickly turns into millions of reasons to hurl “Racist” around the megalopolis corridor once more.

    O’bama loses and some blacks might make good on their threat to riot against Tyrannical Whitey.

    Romney WINS and whites regain precious breathing room. They will have been spared the plight of making hard decisions about who they are and what their children’s future looks like. They have not earned this comfort. He is not their man.

    Rominee ‘wins’ and there will be a recount.

    Some how, some way, I bet the spade has an ace up his sleeve.

  7. #8 by Conrad on 11/05/2012 - 8:58 pm

    I am still going along with the idea that the only way to get white people to become more racially conscious is for them to suffer. So, I’m voting for Obama. Obama has been the best President for our side in 50 years.
    Jack’s War

  8. #9 by c-bear on 11/06/2012 - 5:12 am

    Bob, you are bold, and you keep it simple. That is why I came here, and why I’m still around. I’m sure I speak for everyone here when I say, “I want what you’ve got.”

    As for the election, I couldn’t care less who “wins” the seat. They are both in the same party — Anti-white.

    There is only one difference between the two that really matter to MOST: One is white, and the other black. MOST will also disagree with this, but that doesn’t mean this isn’t true. I have, however witnessed some honesty from the sheep during this last term. I have heard several say that they “thought it would be cool to have a black president.”, like they were voting for prom king. Democracy must be some sort of sick joke. I truly dread election years. This one has been no exception.

  9. #10 by Daniel Genseric on 11/06/2012 - 1:01 pm

    CBS reports O’Bama victory 16 days prior to “the Tuesday after the first Monday in November”. Can somebody please explain what “A master control, technical glitch” means? Is that the same thing that caused MILLIONS of whites to “fall asleep” while white genocide was carried out in every white country?

  10. #11 by Lord Nelson on 11/07/2012 - 1:52 pm

    Amazingly! You were right Bob. I wish I had rushed out when I first read this and put a £100.00 on Obamy.


  11. #12 by patrickwhiterabbit on 11/08/2012 - 1:55 pm

    David Duke is using White Genocide now it seems….

    • #13 by Daniel Genseric on 11/08/2012 - 7:00 pm

      This comment really belongs here:

      Why? Because Bob never published “News, Jews & Cognitive Suicide (Part 2). As he said, it is a little N&J-ey, but that is because I quoted someone else. hint hint… It was a scathing rebuke of a piece DD wrote four or five days ago. It was about Leadership’s consistent inability or unwillingness to call THIS what it is.

      As usual, I won’t hold my breath.

    • #14 by Daniel Genseric on 11/08/2012 - 7:30 pm

      Also, please note that ‘European American’ will be a term growing in popularity, rivaling and possibly even eclipsing ‘White’.

      I am now seeing it everywhere. Gretchen Carlson of Fox and Friends even referred to herself as such about two weeks ago.

  12. #15 by Jason on 11/09/2012 - 12:07 am

    This article says the reason Romney lost is because not enough Whites turned out. Specifically, working class Whites didn’t trust Romney. They don’t like Obama either, so they just stayed home.

    This means if a White candidate who is populist comes along, he could bring them out. It’s a long article, but the stats are on page 2.

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