About the beginning of 2008, I noted a comment going around about the Clintons being popular with blacks because “Bill Clinton is a white black man.” It was wildly popular quote.
At that time I gave my usual little warning:
I pointed out in these pages that while white anti-whites were delighted with “Clinton is a white black man” it would not be that long before blacks would want a real BLACK man.
When I said that no one even heard of the brand new junior senator from Illinois named Obama.
Now there is something else that could be as unexpected as Obama which nobody but me would notice.
Having been through what seems like a hundred presidential elections, I assumed that Trump would do what every other Republican who excites the grassroots does, he suddenly realizes he might get a Real Nomination.
The Republican Powers That Be tell him to abandon all that GrassRoots crap and put on his puppet strings and he does. That is what I expected Trump to do. 
But this one is feeling a bit different.
Trump can afford to run on a third party ticket.
God knows I don’t want to get everybody here confused with election arithmetic the way I did with the 1932 German election. So just let me say this:
In three way race against a regular Republican and a regular Democrat, Trump might win.
I hope this arithmetic doesn’t causes the chaos my election stats on the 1932 German election did, so please pay close attention to the outstanding American example; Lincoln’s election in 1860.
Lincoln was, at the time, an extremist. He got only forty percent of the popular vote.
But Lincoln’s opponents, the Democrats, had split up, and nominated three different candidates.
Lincoln was not allowed to even campaign below the Mason-Dixon Line. He wrote off the South the way Republicans have to write off the minority vote.
The Accepted Wisdom was that you couldn’t win if you wrote off a major portion of the electorate. But Lincoln’s supporters DID write us off and they DID win.
Trump would write off the dying old National Review types and all eleven of the surviving Liberal Republicans. He could write off the minorities the Republicans have always said they have to appeal to.
Lincoln did it. Trump could do it.
There could be enough Americans out there to win a three-way race.
As with blacks wanting a BLACK, I just bring this up now because if it happens, everybody will have predicted it.
So I bring it up now.
#1 by -backbaygrouch- on 01/28/2016 - 12:52 pm
The effect of a third party is hard to predict. In 1912 the Republicans split and lost to 40% of the vote Wilson. In 1924 the same except the GOP won in a massive landslide. In 1948 the Democrats split three ways and won. In 1968 they split two ways and lost. In 1980 the Republicans again split and won. In 1992 Perot ran an insurgency campaign against both parties and it is unclear what effect he had.
In 1948 the Democrat spin-offs inoculated Truman from the ill effects of dissidents within his party. The same pretty much happened to Coolidge in 1924 and Reagan in 1980 when the dissidents who left the tent attracted more votes from the Democrats they resembled. In 1912 Roosevelt scuttled Taft by taking more Republicans with him than he attracted Democrats. Similarly in 1968 Wallace gutted the Democrats while attracting minimal Republican support.
As can be seen the results of a split are not predictable. From a party manager’s stand point the question is will we lose our pest or will our pest siphon off supporters from the other party. Not an easy thing to gauge in the kaleidoscope of the national politics of a nation of over 300 million souls with an electoral college of 51 unique subdivisions. Should in 2016 Trump wander off and if you need the money stay away from the two dollar window.
“All horse players die broke” – Damon Runyan
#2 by Secret Squirrel on 01/28/2016 - 1:02 pm
I was hoping he might go third party too, but he is so effective, it appears to a rube like me, he is purging the Republicans out of the Republicans. It looks to me like he is going to take over the party and turn it populist. Is that possible?
#3 by Secret Squirrel on 02/02/2016 - 2:10 am
Well there ya go. I can’t pick elections.
#4 by Henry Davenport on 01/29/2016 - 8:10 am
“So I bring it up now.”
Well good luck with that, Bob. Tomorrow I’ll position myself to take credit for predicting it if it happens. 🙂
#5 by Bob on 01/29/2016 - 12:39 pm
All due respect, BBG, but you haven’t anything.
If Trump’s third party were to outpoll the Republicans, it would be first and ONLY time in two centuries a third party did that except for 1912.
And 1912 was Teddy Roosevelt, who left politics after 1912.
Trump coming in second would badly damage the most poisonous entity in American politics, the Republican Party.
I described in detail in A plague on Both Your Houses hiw the Democrat-Republican oligarchy destroyed America.
#6 by Undercover Lover on 01/30/2016 - 12:29 pm
I honestly just don’t know how the American elections are going to turn out. I think the important thing to remember is even if Trump wins and he turns out to be everything we hope for, we aren’t finished in our mission.
#7 by Laura on 01/30/2016 - 3:32 pm
Bob will be on Paltalk this evening from 6pm ET
#8 by Henry Davenport on 01/31/2016 - 2:06 pm
I encourage heavy tweeters here to register at SF if you aren’t already and join this tweeting group that aims to change “Trump’s wall” into “Trump’s ‘Stop White Genocide Wall.’”
Some experienced BUGSers dropping in now and then would be top notch! 🙂
ACTIVIST TWEETING GROUP AT SF:
Don’t let illegal Mexicans build Donald Trump’s “STOP WHITE GENOCIDE Wall”!
#9 by Henry Davenport on 02/02/2016 - 12:42 pm
How do you all like the title of Fred’s WGP article on February’s White house meme-message,
Formerly White communities are now genocidal assimilation chambers for White genocide
That’s from a line in the meme-message itself,
Donald Trump’s “Stop White Genocide Wall” will slow the extinction of Whites in the genocidal assimilation chambers that formerly were White communities
I think the phrase “genocidal assimilation chambers” for America’s formerly White communities has possibilities. It seems to fit Bob’s criterion of, “If you want to be quoted, be quotable.”
The Wallbangers (if that’s what those of us tweeting out “Trump’s ‘Stop White Genocide Wall'” from SF end up calling ourselves) are going to be tweeting the “assimilation chambers” as a break from tweeting the Wall stuff, both of which will have plenty of standard Mantra.
If you tweet or want to, check us out and join:
Don’t let illegal Mexicans build Donald Trump’s “STOP WHITE GENOCIDE Wall”!
#10 by Undercover Lover on 02/03/2016 - 3:33 pm
I like the term “assimilation chambers”
#11 by Secret Squirrel on 02/03/2016 - 6:00 pm
“But this one is feeling a bit different.
Trump can afford to run on a third party ticket.”
Bob, your first instinct might turn out to be correct:
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump Feb 2
I don’t believe I have been given any credit by the voters for self-funding my campaign, the only one. I will keep doing, but not worth it!
#12 by Secret Squirrel on 02/04/2016 - 4:54 am
Ah cancel that. He’s telling voters he’s self funded and they should understand its important.
From 7.30
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6gFKs8HEyQ